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Chinese estate bubble is assuming American monetary policy should continue const
Chief economist breaths out limited company of China International banking afterwards inscription issued a report with respect to American banking crisis yesterday, point out China should teach a lesson in the derive in financial crisis: Namely loose monetary policy is easy cause asset value bubble, to in the future financial system crisis brings potential risk. Ha Jiming expresses, the photograph of estate bubble degree that China goes a few years compares American go even farther than, need adopts measurable and constrictive monetary policy, otherwise bubble is undone will cause bigger negative effect. Domestic month does not issue   Ha Jiming higher than residing to think in the report for income, the germ of American epicycle crisis was 2001 after IT bubble is undone, beautiful couplet store to resist economic depression and lower interest considerably, comfortable interest rate condition stimulated room city bubble, and the finance that emerge in endlessly is derived article quickened foamy to expand again, final bubble is undone cause financial crisis. Ha Jiming expresses, the photograph of estate bubble degree that China goes a few years compares American go even farther than. And according to be opposite in this report the investigation data of a few main cities of Chinese is analysed, average month income was the family of example city 2008 6453 yuan, and below eye anteroom price domestic month offers income 75% more breathtaking than was being achieved, house price needs to drop 42% ability make the month comes than falling for income 40% ; Even if of before be being ranked to income 60% in good-paying family, the income of average household month 2008 also has 9311 yuan only, month of the family below price of anteroom of eye of this part crowd also is as high as 54% for income comparing, house price needs to drop 19% ability make its month comes than falling for income 40% . See accordingly, the bubble of estate changes rate quite tall. Is real estate glides bank cherish is borrowed advocate what kind of caution to because is the house property bubble of   United States undone,leave China? To this, the Lu Zheng of center of carry of battalion of financing of the bank that start line of business appoint point out, from the point of progress of whole and macroscopical economy, the biggest risk that China faces now is two -- one is external economy condition, namely the disorder of at present money market and global economy glide; And another risk is domestic real estate. He thinks the government should be careful evaluate estate market, take positive step, the stable health that maintains estate market develops. Lu Zheng appoint think, at present more popular notion is see consumption from estate, see its from consumption again the influence to economy, but proper perspective should be the balance sheet that reads financial orgnaization from estate, once the balance sheet is exasperate, so industry financing condition is exasperate, photograph comparing consumption, should get greatly to economic blow much, even if consumption does not go weak, hypostatic economy also can worsen all the same. Those who speak of domestic estate market is dispirited, lu Zheng appoint point out afraidly, "If estate glides generally 10% the left and right sides, the bad Zhang rate of the bank can rise significantly, the cherish that the exasperate meeting of the balance sheet lets bank occurrence extreme is serious borrows a mood, this may endanger hypostatic economy. " it is not certain that   room shifts a test at present domestic superintendency layer and bank had noticed   of accurate report risk the risk of estate, pressure of hand-in-hand travel estate checks. According to the estimation of on the market one kind of simplification, think house price drops generally 15% can not bring a risk to the bank. To this, room of some country bank borrows a branch relevant personage expresses to the reporter, 15% are the estimation of a kind of simplification, assume the assessment of estate value does not have occurrence miscarriage of justice namely, but when having, this kind of miscarriage of justice is existence really, press the house of 1.5 million finally for instance 2 million, 3 million borrow go out. Turned in the past especially mortgage faddish when, financial orgnaization borrows money to contend for a bank, can appear a lot of problems. According to reporter understanding, this kind of circumstance exists really inside period of time. A surname piece the person that buy a house ever disclosed, when buying a house last year, building intermediary is his offer a idea, head it is OK to pay inadequacy a house price drive up, 1 million write into 3 million, come so other can borrow money from the bank. Afore-mentioned bank rooms borrow sectional public figure to express to the reporter, similar of this kind of hype non-standard it is the problem that the meeting in actual loan encounters, because this data mixes this Zhang,reality can have discrepancy. Is liquidity excess be prime criminal? Ha Jiming points out, the source that estate bubble forms depends on comfortable interest rate condition and the policy that lower interest considerably. To this economist Xu Xiaonian also points out the germ of the crisis depends on a money supplying the need that exceeded hypostatic economy. Lu Zheng appoint express, normal appraise is worth the occurrence value deviate with periodic money market is regular pattern. Up to now the bubble of the bubble that the macroscopical adjusting control of neither one country can dominate estate market successfully and stock market, this specification beforehand is discriminated hard when the price is exorbitant, monetary policy is too loose. Merchant Li Min

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From;  Author:Stand originally